This is an implementation of Epstein’s model of civil violence. Civilian agents have an individual static level of hardship, and can stay quiet or rebel against the government based on the following reasoning:
– their level of grievance depends on hardship but also on legitimacy of the government
– their subjective risk level is evaluated based on the risk of being arrested (the more cops around, the more risk; the more other rebels around, the less risk), on the prison sentence incurred (deterrent effect if high sanctions), and on their individual risk aversion (which tends to increase after previous arrests).
– when their grievance is sufficiently high compared to the risks, they will rebel. If the risk is too high, they will stay quiet.
The model shows how riots will emerge in the population, depending on how legitimate the government is, and also its usage of force (through higher police density, and longer prison sentences). You can explore the dynamics of civil riots with various scenarios.